<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small"><img src="cid:ii_lt46acu81" alt="Revised flyer.jpg" width="502" height="650" style="margin-right:0px"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small"><div><div class="gmail_default"><b><u>TALK DETAILS</u></b></div><div class="gmail_default"><b><u><br></u></b></div><div class="gmail_default"><font style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);vertical-align:inherit"><font style="vertical-align:inherit"><b>When:</b> </font></font><font style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(80,0,80);vertical-align:inherit"><font style="vertical-align:inherit"><font style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> Tuesday, February 27</font><span class="gmail_default" style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">, 2024</span><font style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> at</font><b style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> <u style="background-color:rgb(255,255,0)">11:00</u></b><b style="background-color:rgb(255,255,0)"><u><font color="#000000"> a</font></u></b><b><u style="background-color:rgb(255,255,0)"><font color="#000000">m CT</font></u><font color="#000000"> </font></b></font></font><br></div><div class="gmail_default"><div class="gmail_default"><div class="gmail_default" style="color:rgb(80,0,80)"><p style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;line-height:normal;margin:0px"><b style="font-family:arial,sans-serif"><font color="#500050"><br></font></b></p><p style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;line-height:normal;margin:0px"><b style="font-family:arial,sans-serif"><font color="#500050">Where: </font></b><font color="#000000" style="font-family:arial,sans-serif">Talk will be given </font><font color="#000000" style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-weight:bold"><u>live, in-person</u></font><font style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-weight:bold"> </font><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif">at</span><br></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font face="arial, sans-serif"><font color="#500050"> </font><font color="#000000"> TTIC, 6045 S. Kenwood Avenue</font></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font face="arial, sans-serif" color="#000000"> 5th Floor, Room 530<b> </b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font face="arial, sans-serif" color="#000000"><b><br></b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font face="arial, sans-serif"><b style="color:rgb(60,64,67);letter-spacing:0.2px">Virtually:</b><span style="color:rgb(60,64,67);letter-spacing:0.2px"> <i>via </i>Panopto </span>(<b><a href="https://uchicago.hosted.panopto.com/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=1a6f02ca-5a65-4d96-a787-b11e01877c17" target="_blank">livestream</a></b><span style="color:rgb(60,64,67);letter-spacing:0.2px">)</span><br></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><span style="color:rgb(60,64,67);letter-spacing:0.2px"><font face="arial, sans-serif"></font><font face="georgia, serif"><b> *limited access: see info below</b></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font face="arial, sans-serif"><b><span style="color:black"><br></span></b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;vertical-align:inherit"><font style="vertical-align:inherit"><b>Who: </b> <font color="#500050"> </font><font color="#000000"><font color="#500050"> </font></font></font></font>Rediet Abebe, <span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Harvard University</span><br></p></div></div><div class="gmail_default"><div dir="ltr"><div><div class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;text-align:center;line-height:15.6933px;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><hr size="3" width="100%" noshade align="center" style="color:rgb(46,116,181)"></div></div><div><div><font face="arial, sans-serif"><b>Title: </b></font>When Does Allocation Require Prediction?<font face="arial, sans-serif"><br></font><span style="background:transparent;color:rgb(14,16,26);margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span class="gmail_default"><b><br></b></span></span></div><div><span style="background:transparent;color:rgb(14,16,26);margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span class="gmail_default"><b>Abstract:</b> </span>Algorithmic predictions are emerging as a promising solution concept for efficiently allocating scarce societal resources. Fueling their use is an underlying assumption that predictive systems are necessary for </span><em style="background:transparent;color:rgb(14,16,26);margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">identification---</span></em><span style="background:transparent;color:rgb(14,16,26);margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">that we can target resources more efficiently through individual risk scores output by such systems. We examine this assumption empirically and theoretically.</span></div><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">Empirically, we present findings from a large-scale evaluation of Wisconsin's Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS)---an early warning system used to predict each public school student's likelihood of dropping out of high school. Using nearly a decade's worth of data, we show that DEWS accurately sorts students by their dropout risk, and it may have resulted in a single-digit increase in graduation rates. However, a simple allocation mechanism that only uses environmental information about schools, neighborhoods, and districts may have sufficed for targeting interventions just as efficiently. </span></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">We examine this gap that emerges between predictions and allocations theoretically. Using a simple mathematical model, we evaluate the efficacy of individual prediction-based allocation mechanisms with environmentally-based mechanisms, which only use aggregate school-level statistics. We find that individual prediction-based allocations outperform environmental-based allocations only when between-school inequality is low or the allocation budget is high. Our theoretical findings hold for a wide range of settings for the heterogeneity of treatment effects, learnability of school-level statistics, and price of prediction. </span></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">These insights call into question the necessity of individual predictions for efficient allocations when outcomes are structurally determined. Predictions may only improve allocations only if inequality is low. </span></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><em style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">This talk is based on joint work with Tolani Britton, Moritz Hardt, Juan Carlos Perdomo, and Ali Shirali. It is informed by discussions with Wisconsin's Department of Public Instruction, particularly Erin Fath, Carl Frederick, and Justin Meyer. </span></em></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p><div><font face="arial, sans-serif"><b>Bio: </b></font><a href="https://www.redietabebe.com/" target="_blank">Rediet Abebe</a> is a Junior Fellow at the <a href="https://socfell.fas.harvard.edu/" target="_blank">Harvard Society of Fellows</a> and an <a href="https://www.carnegie.org/awards/andrew-carnegie-fellows/2022/" target="_blank">Andrew Carnegie Fellow</a>. Abebe’s research examines the interaction of algorithms and inequality, with a focus on contributing to the scientific foundations of this emerging research area. Abebe co-launched the ACM Conference on Equity and Access in Algorithms, Mechanisms, and Optimization (<a href="https://eaamo.org/" target="_blank">ACM EAAMO</a>), for which Abebe serves on the executive committee and was a program co-chair for the inaugural conference. Abebe’s work has received recognitions including the MIT Technology Reviews’ 35 Innovators Under 35, the Bloomberg 50 as a one to watch, the ACM SIGKDD Dissertation Award, and an honorable mention for the ACM SIGecom Dissertation Award.<br><font face="arial, sans-serif"><span style="color:rgb(80,0,80)"><br></span></font></div></div><div><b style="font-family:arial,sans-serif">Host: </b><a href="mailto:avrim@ttic.edu" style="font-family:arial,sans-serif" target="_blank"><b>Avrim Blum</b></a><br></div></div></div><div class="gmail_default"><br></div></div><div class="gmail_default"><font color="#0000ff" face="arial black, sans-serif">*</font><font face="tahoma, sans-serif">Access to this livestream is limited to <b>TTIC / UChicago</b> (press panopto link and sign in to your UChicago account with </font><span style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(29,29,33);font-weight:600">CNetID</span><font face="tahoma, sans-serif">). </font><br></div><div dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(80,0,80)"><div><br></div></span><div><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p></div></div><br></div><br></div><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:x-small">Mary C. Marre</span><br></div><div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" size="1">Faculty Administrative Support</font></div><div><i><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" color="#3d85c6" size="1"><b>Toyota Technological Institute</b></font></i></div><div><i><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" color="#3d85c6" size="1">6045 S. Kenwood Avenue, Rm 517</font></i></div><div><font size="1"><i><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" color="#3d85c6">Chicago, IL 60637</font></i><br></font></div><div><font size="1"><i><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" color="#3d85c6">773-834-1757</font></i></font></div><div><b><i><a href="mailto:mmarre@ttic.edu" target="_blank"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" size="1">mmarre@ttic.edu</font></a></i></b></div></div></div></div></div><br></div></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, Feb 26, 2024 at 5:13 PM Mary Marre <<a href="mailto:mmarre@ttic.edu" target="_blank">mmarre@ttic.edu</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div style="font-size:small"><img src="cid:ii_lt3jh67d0" alt="image.png" width="475" height="615" style="margin-right:0px"><br></div><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div style="font-size:small"><b><u>TALK DETAILS</u></b></div><div style="font-size:small"><b><u><br></u></b></div><div><font style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);vertical-align:inherit"><font style="vertical-align:inherit"><b>When:</b> </font></font><font style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(80,0,80);vertical-align:inherit"><font style="vertical-align:inherit"><font style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> Tuesday, February 27</font><span class="gmail_default" style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">, 2024</span><font style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> at</font><b style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> <u style="background-color:rgb(255,255,0)">11:00</u></b><b style="background-color:rgb(255,255,0)"><u><font color="#000000"> a</font></u></b><b><u style="background-color:rgb(255,255,0)"><font color="#000000">m CT</font></u><font color="#000000"> </font></b></font></font><br></div><div><div><div style="color:rgb(80,0,80)"><p style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;line-height:normal;margin:0px"><b style="font-family:arial,sans-serif"><font color="#500050"><br></font></b></p><p style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;line-height:normal;margin:0px"><b style="font-family:arial,sans-serif"><font color="#500050">Where: </font></b><font color="#000000" style="font-family:arial,sans-serif">Talk will be given </font><font color="#000000" style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-weight:bold"><u>live, in-person</u></font><font style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-weight:bold"> </font><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif">at</span><br></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font face="arial, sans-serif"><font color="#500050"> </font><font color="#000000"> TTIC, 6045 S. Kenwood Avenue</font></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font face="arial, sans-serif" color="#000000"> 5th Floor, Room 530<b> </b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font face="arial, sans-serif" color="#000000"><b><br></b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font face="arial, sans-serif"><b style="color:rgb(60,64,67);letter-spacing:0.2px">Virtually:</b><span style="color:rgb(60,64,67);letter-spacing:0.2px"> <i>via </i>Panopto </span>(<b><a href="https://uchicago.hosted.panopto.com/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=1a6f02ca-5a65-4d96-a787-b11e01877c17" target="_blank">livestream</a></b><span style="color:rgb(60,64,67);letter-spacing:0.2px">)</span><br></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><span style="color:rgb(60,64,67);letter-spacing:0.2px"><font face="arial, sans-serif"></font><font face="georgia, serif"><b> *limited access: see info below</b></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font face="arial, sans-serif"><b><span style="color:black"><br></span></b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"><font style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;vertical-align:inherit"><font style="vertical-align:inherit"><b>Who: </b> <font color="#500050"> </font><font color="#000000"><font color="#500050"> </font></font></font></font>Rediet Abebe, <span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">Harvard University</span><br></p></div></div><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;text-align:center;line-height:15.6933px;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><hr size="3" width="100%" noshade align="center" style="color:rgb(46,116,181)"></div></div><div><div><font face="arial, sans-serif"><b>Title: </b></font>When Does Allocation Require Prediction?<font face="arial, sans-serif"><br></font><span style="background:transparent;color:rgb(14,16,26);margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span class="gmail_default"><b><br></b></span></span></div><div><span style="background:transparent;color:rgb(14,16,26);margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span class="gmail_default"><b>Abstract:</b> </span>Algorithmic predictions are emerging as a promising solution concept for efficiently allocating scarce societal resources. Fueling their use is an underlying assumption that predictive systems are necessary for </span><em style="background:transparent;color:rgb(14,16,26);margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">identification---</span></em><span style="background:transparent;color:rgb(14,16,26);margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">that we can target resources more efficiently through individual risk scores output by such systems. We examine this assumption empirically and theoretically.</span></div><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">Empirically, we present findings from a large-scale evaluation of Wisconsin's Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS)---an early warning system used to predict each public school student's likelihood of dropping out of high school. Using nearly a decade's worth of data, we show that DEWS accurately sorts students by their dropout risk, and it may have resulted in a single-digit increase in graduation rates. However, a simple allocation mechanism that only uses environmental information about schools, neighborhoods, and districts may have sufficed for targeting interventions just as efficiently. </span></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">We examine this gap that emerges between predictions and allocations theoretically. Using a simple mathematical model, we evaluate the efficacy of individual prediction-based allocation mechanisms with environmentally-based mechanisms, which only use aggregate school-level statistics. We find that individual prediction-based allocations outperform environmental-based allocations only when between-school inequality is low or the allocation budget is high. Our theoretical findings hold for a wide range of settings for the heterogeneity of treatment effects, learnability of school-level statistics, and price of prediction. </span></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">These insights call into question the necessity of individual predictions for efficient allocations when outcomes are structurally determined. Predictions may only improve allocations only if inequality is low. </span></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><em style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">This talk is based on joint work with Tolani Britton, Moritz Hardt, Juan Carlos Perdomo, and Ali Shirali. It is informed by discussions with Wisconsin's Department of Public Instruction, particularly Erin Fath, Carl Frederick, and Justin Meyer. </span></em></p><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p><div><font face="arial, sans-serif"><b>Bio: </b></font><a href="https://www.redietabebe.com/" target="_blank">Rediet Abebe</a> is a Junior Fellow at the <a href="https://socfell.fas.harvard.edu/" target="_blank">Harvard Society of Fellows</a> and an <a href="https://www.carnegie.org/awards/andrew-carnegie-fellows/2022/" target="_blank">Andrew Carnegie Fellow</a>. Abebe’s research examines the interaction of algorithms and inequality, with a focus on contributing to the scientific foundations of this emerging research area. Abebe co-launched the ACM Conference on Equity and Access in Algorithms, Mechanisms, and Optimization (<a href="https://eaamo.org/" target="_blank">ACM EAAMO</a>), for which Abebe serves on the executive committee and was a program co-chair for the inaugural conference. Abebe’s work has received recognitions including the MIT Technology Reviews’ 35 Innovators Under 35, the Bloomberg 50 as a one to watch, the ACM SIGKDD Dissertation Award, and an honorable mention for the ACM SIGecom Dissertation Award.<br><font face="arial, sans-serif"><span style="color:rgb(80,0,80)"><br></span></font></div></div><div><b style="font-family:arial,sans-serif">Host: </b><a href="mailto:avrim@ttic.edu" style="font-family:arial,sans-serif" target="_blank"><b>Avrim Blum</b></a><br></div></div></div><div><br></div></div><div><font color="#0000ff" face="arial black, sans-serif">*</font><font face="tahoma, sans-serif">Access to this livestream is limited to TTIC / UChicago (press panopto link and sign in to your UChicago account with </font><span style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(29,29,33);font-weight:600">CNetID</span><font face="tahoma, sans-serif">). </font><br></div><div dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(80,0,80)"><div><br></div></span><div><p style="color:rgb(14,16,26);background:transparent;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br></p></div></div><br></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:x-small"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:x-small"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:x-small"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:x-small"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:x-small"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:x-small">Mary C. Marre</span><br></div><div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" size="1">Faculty Administrative Support</font></div><div><i><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" color="#3d85c6" size="1"><b>Toyota Technological Institute</b></font></i></div><div><i><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" color="#3d85c6" size="1">6045 S. Kenwood Avenue, Rm 517</font></i></div><div><font size="1"><i><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" color="#3d85c6">Chicago, IL 60637</font></i><br></font></div><div><font size="1"><i><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" color="#3d85c6">773-834-1757</font></i></font></div><div><b><i><a href="mailto:mmarre@ttic.edu" target="_blank"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" size="1">mmarre@ttic.edu</font></a></i></b></div></div></div></div></div></div>
</blockquote></div></div>