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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><b><span style="color:black">Subject:
</span></b><span style="color:black">Carlo Graziani - ANL/MCS: PHS Seminar Presentation at the University of Chicago, Public Health Sciences Department<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Carlo Graziani, PhD., will be presenting a presentation at the University of Chicago, Public Health Sciences
Department, via zoom, on Wednesday, October 6, 2021. The zoom link and information is listed below.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: auto;text-align:start;widows: auto;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px">
<b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">PHS Seminar Presentation</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: auto;text-align:start;widows: auto;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px">
<b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Speaker:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"> Carlo Graziani, PhD.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: auto;text-align:start;widows: auto;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px">
<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory; Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: auto;text-align:start;widows: auto;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px">
<b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Bio:<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Carlo Graziani is a computational scientist at
Argonne National Laboratory. He received a PhD in physics from the University of Chicago in 1993. He works on problems in probabilistic machine learning,<br>
Bayesian statistics, and uncertainty quantification in computational science applications. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Date:</span></b><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Wednesday,
October 6, 2021<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: auto;text-align:start;widows: auto;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px">
<b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Time:</span></b><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">4:00pm
- 5:00pm<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: auto;text-align:start;widows: auto;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px">
<b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Zoom:</span></b><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Link
Listed Below<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: auto;text-align:start;widows: auto;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px">
<b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Host:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"> Habibul Ahsan, PHS<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: auto;text-align:start;widows: auto;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px">
<b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Title:<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">The Delta Variant Had Negligible Impact on
COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness in the USA<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Abstract:</span></b><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">The
SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant (B.1.617.2) was initially identified in India in December 2020. Due to its high transmissibility, its prevalence in the USA grew from a near-zero baseline in early May 2021 to nearly 100% by late August 2021. The question of whether
Delta is or <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>is not a vaccine "escape" variant is of urgent importance to public <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>health authorities, and has been debated, somewhat inconclusively, in <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>the
scientific literature. We gathered openly available data sources on RT-PCR COVID-19 tests split by the COVID-19 vaccination status of individuals tested during this period from the public health authorities of seven U.S. states, five U.S. counties, and the
District of Columbia. This data enabled us to generate geographically-resolved time-series of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against test-diagnosed infection, concurrently with the growth of Delta variant prevalence in those locations. Our analyses reveal that
in each locality the VE for <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>the combined set of all three US vaccines remained relatively stable <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>and quite well-performing, despite the dramatic concurrent rise of <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Delta
variant prevalence. We conclude that the Delta variant is not a vaccine escape variant to any significant degree. We discuss further <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>implications of this type of data for epidemic surveillance, including <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>opportunities
for simple data reforms and expansion of COVID-19 test <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>data collection, curation, and distribution in other public health <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>authorities in the USA and Internationally. Such
reforms could result in the creation of a real-time COVID-19 epidemic observatory with surveillance capabilities that exceed anything available at present.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Zoom Option:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Dr. Carlo Graziani, PhD., is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Topic: PHS Seminar Speaker: Dr. Carlo Graziani, PhD.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Time: Oct 6, 2021, 04:00 PM Central Time (US and Canada)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Join Zoom Meeting<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://uchicagomedicine.zoom.us/j/95142867968?pwd=dng1Q0JOanFvRzdIeURVSkJBQmhvUT09" title="https://uchicagomedicine.zoom.us/j/95142867968?pwd=dng1Q0JOanFvRzdIeURVSkJBQmhvUT09"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif">https://uchicagomedicine.zoom.us/j/95142867968?pwd=dng1Q0JOanFvRzdIeURVSkJBQmhvUT09</span></a><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Meeting ID: 951 4286 7968<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Passcode: 35915319<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">One tap mobile<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">+13126266799,,95142867968#,,,,*35915319# US (Chicago)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Dial by your location<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Meeting ID: 951 4286 7968<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Passcode: 35915319<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Find your local number:<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><a href="https://uchicagomedicine.zoom.us/u/awhqgtArE" title="https://uchicagomedicine.zoom.us/u/awhqgtArE"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif">https://uchicagomedicine.zoom.us/u/awhqgtArE</span></a><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Join by H.323<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Meeting ID: 951 4286 7968<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black">Passcode: 35915319<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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